The Blue Wall of Great Lakes states that Trump toppled in November 2016 so far looks to be holding for Democrats in 2018. Sens. Bob Casey (Pennsylvania), Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Debbie Stabenow (Michigan) and Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin) are all favorites for re-election. Of that group, Baldwin appears to have the toughest race, facing a challenge from conservative state Sen. Leah Vukmir.
To be sure, the deep red states where Democratic incumbents are hoping to hang on may play to type and keep the majority out of reach for the party. But if a blue wave crests higher than expected, it could lift Democrats in states that would be all but lost in a more neutral environment.
Democrats are on offense in Nevada, a state Hillary Clinton carried by 2 points and where Rep. Jacky Rosen is now challenging GOP Sen. Dean Heller. The Battle Born State could be ground zero for the health care debate this cycle, with Rosen aggressively attacking Heller’s support for the GOP’s effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
Republicans breathed a sigh of relief late last month when GOP Rep. Martha McSally emerged from a tough primary contest in Arizona with a convincing victory against conservative firebrands Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio. But McSally’s shift to the right during the nominating fight, particularly on immigration, could pose a challenge in the general against Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, who entered the general election largely unscathed.
The list of Democratic targets this cycle has doubled, with a pair of red states — Tennessee and Texas — looking increasingly competitive. With the Senate currently split 51-49 in favor of Republicans, if Democrats were able to win either of those contests — assuming they also flip Arizona and Nevada — it would mean the party could afford to see one of its incumbents defeated and still preserve a path to the majority.
Tennessee Senate: Race moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up
Bredesen’s standing is buoyed by his popularity — 61% of likely voters have a favorable view of the Democrat versus 22% who hold a negative view of him. By comparison, 46% of likely voters view Blackburn favorably compared with 36% who do not.
When it comes to the President, 47% approve of his job performance while 43% disapprove. Blackburn, a staunch ally of the President, is making the argument that electing Bredesen could give Democrats control of the Senate — a persuasive message in a state that went for Trump by 26 points. Bredesen has pledged to work with the President when he proposes policies that benefit Tennessee, declaring at the start of his campaign he was not “running against” Trump.
Texas Senate: Race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
For Democrats, the path to victory in the Lone Star State has been elusive. The party’s last statewide win came in 1994. The last time Texas elected a Democrat to the Senate was 1988. Clinton lost the state by nine points — an improvement on Mitt Romney’s 16-point margin over Barack Obama in 2012. Having tapped into the Democrats’ enthusiasm edge, O’Rourke appears poised to narrow the gap even more this year.
West Virginia Senate: Race moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic
West Virginia should be at or near the top of the GOP’s targets this cycle based on Trump’s 42-point margin there in 2016. The President has also visited the Mountaineer State six times since taking office.
The difficulty for Republicans is they are running against Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, a popular two-term governor who has demonstrated a willingness to buck his party and support the President’s policies and nominees. He voted for Trump’s first Supreme Court selection, Neil Gorsuch, and has signaled he’s open to supporting Brett Kavanaugh, saying Wednesday he has not seen anything disqualifying from the nominee during this week’s Senate Judiciary Committee hearings. Manchin also has demonstrated he can win in a less-than-ideal environment, receiving 61% of the vote in 2012 even as Romney carried the state with 62% support.
Republican nominee Patrick Morrisey, the state’s attorney general, has faced questions about his fundraising ability and Manchin has a six-to-one cash advantage. Morrisey only recently launched his first television ad, a biographical spot that features praise from the President and highlights his legal challenge to environmental regulations implemented by the Obama administration.
North Dakota Senate: Race moves from Toss-Up to Lean Republican
One state where Republicans are increasingly bullish about their chances is North Dakota, where GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer is challenging Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in a state the President carried by 36 points. Trump was personally involved in the effort to recruit Cramer into the race and stumped for the three-term GOP lawmaker Friday night in Fargo.
For a while it appeared Heitkamp was Trump’s favorite Senate Democrat. The President praised her as a “good woman” during a September 2017 event in the Peace Garden State and invited her to the White House in May for the signing of a bank deregulation bill she co-sponsored.
Heitkamp should be able to keep the race close because of her strong personal brand and resource advantage — leading Cramer $5.2 to $2.4 million in cash on hand. Cramer’s bottom line should get a boost thanks to the President’s visit, which his campaign says raised over $1 million.
Democrats are attacking Cramer on health care, accusing him of voting to strip protections for people with pre-existing conditions, and trade policy, a particularly acute concern in agriculture-rich North Dakota. Republicans, meanwhile, are targeting Heitkamp on hot-button issues such as abortion and so-called sanctuary cities, as well as her vote against the GOP tax cuts.
Given Trump’s popularity in the state, Cramer’s unwavering support for the President could be a more potent pitch to voters than Heitkamp’s message of moderation. The national environment this year favors Democrats, but North Dakota is very much Trump country — and Cramer is Trump’s candidate.
New Jersey Senate: Race moves from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic
It’s been nearly 50 years since New Jersey voters elected a Republican to the Senate.
Democratic primary voters in the state delivered a clear message to Menendez in June when little-known challenger Lisa McCormick drew 38% of the vote against the two-term incumbent. Still, Menendez received more votes than were cast in the GOP primary, which Hugin won with 75% support.
Hugin has loaned his campaign more than $15 million and has spent more than $7 million on television ads to boost his candidacy. Menendez has been saving his resources — holding about $6.4 million cash on hand. He’s also getting a little help from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which recently teamed with Menendez on a joint television ad buy. Democrats feel confident Menendez’s numbers will improve once he hits the airwaves. He also stands to benefit from several competitive House races in a state where Democrats have strong recruits.
Source : CNN