Wholesale used-car prices maintain record pace, but increases slow

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CARY, N.C. – 

While Cox Automotive’s measure of wholesale vehicle values is still at an all-time high, the rate of week-over-week increases has slowed in the first half of June.

And values may have reached an apex.

That’s according to the mid-month reading of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which came in at 203.6.

That is up 36.4% from June 2020 and compares to May’s full month-reading of 203.0. The latter was the fourth straight record month for the index, which hit the 200 mark for the first time ever.

Adjusted for mix, mileage and seasonality, the first half of June showed a 0.29% uptick in wholesale prices over May.

Trend lines in the Manheim Market Report data showed prices climbing, “but at a decelerating pace” during the month’s opening two weeks, with metrics showing that there may have been a peak already in wholesale values.

“The Three-Year-Old MMR Index, which represents the largest model year cohort at auction, experienced a 0.8% cumulative increase over the last two weeks, with last week recording the lowest weekly increase in 20 weeks,” Cox Automotive said in the index report.

“Over the first 15 days of June, MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 99.6%. This indicates valuation models are more closely reflecting market prices than we have seen since early January,” analysts added.

Among other points: The analysis also said sales conversion rates fell from May to the first half of June, but are still higher than what is historically typical.

Last week had a 6-percentage-point lead in sales efficiency compared to the average for June 2019.

“The latest trends in the key indicators suggest wholesale used vehicle values likely peaked last week,” Cox said.

Meantime, in the new-vehicle market, average transaction prices in May reached the third-highest level on record, according to analysis from Kelley Blue Book.

At $41,263, last month’s new-car ATP was the highest ever for the month of May and trailed only December ($41,335) of last year and February of this year ($41,333) on the all-time list, Cox said.

The new-car ATP was up 5.4% year-over-year and 1.2% from April.



Source : AutoFinanceNews