2018 NBA playoff race – What’s at stake and what to watch

0
225


There are just three days left in the NBA regular season, with playoff spots and seeds still up for grabs.

Which games matter the most on Monday night, and what’s at stake? What are the likely playoff matchups? We break it down with some help from ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI).

All times EST.


  • BPI favorite: Heat (51.9 percent)

  • Why it matters: The Thunder secure a playoff spot with a win here or against the Grizzlies on Wednesday. They also clinch if the Nuggets and Wolves both lose on Monday. The Heat can finish as high as No. 6 in the East (likely facing the Cavs or Sixers in the postseason) or as low as No. 8 (meaning a matchup with the Raptors), and they get Toronto to close out the season.

Heat projections

  • No. 6: 61.0 percent

  • No. 7: 31.1 percent

  • No. 8: 7.9 percent

Thunder projections

  • No. 4: 25.7 percent

  • No. 5: 13.5 percent

  • No. 6: 19.3 percent

  • No. 7: 16.5 percent

  • No. 8: 19.7 percent

  • Out: 5.4 percent


  • BPI favorite: Cavs (59.3 percent)

  • Why it matters: If the Cavs want to scoot up into the No. 3 seed over the Philadelphia 76ers — setting up a potential second-round matchup with an injured Celtics squad — wins against the Knicks on Monday and Wednesday will be key.

Cavaliers projections

  • No. 3: 27.4 percent

  • No. 4: 66.5 percent

  • No. 5: 6.1 percent


  • BPI favorite: Bucks (77.3 percent)

  • Why it matters: The Bucks are in the postseason, but their seed is still a total wildcard. A win here gets them closer to No. 6 before facing the 76ers on Wednesday.

Bucks projections

  • No. 6: 32.0 percent

  • No. 7: 42.7 percent

  • No. 8: 25.3 percent


  • BPI favorite: Wolves (85.6 percent)

  • Why it matters: While the Wolves don’t have to beat the Grizzlies to stay in the playoff hunt, a victory helps them control their own destiny since a matchup with Denver awaits on Wednesday. The result of Blazers-Nuggets has big implications for Minnesota. If the the Nuggets lose and the Spurs win, then the Wolves clinch a spot with a victory.

Wolves projections

  • No. 4: 3.3 percent

  • No. 5: 14.3 percent

  • No. 6: 21.5 percent

  • No. 7: 19.6 percent

  • No. 8: 23.6 percent

  • Out: 17.6 percent


  • BPI favorite: Spurs (85.9 percent)

  • Why it matters: The Spurs are in with a win (or a loss by either the Nuggets or Wolves). Otherwise, a Wednesday matchup with the Pelicans could become do or die.

Spurs projections

  • No. 4: 17.2 percent

  • No. 5: 15.4 percent

  • No. 6: 20.4 percent

  • No. 7: 32.2 percent

  • No. 8: 12.7 percent

  • Out: 2.1 percent


  • BPI favorite: Nuggets (58.3 percent)

  • Why it matters: The Blazers looked locked into the No. 3 seed, but the Jazz now have a real chance of stealing it if Portland loses here. Of course, this game is also huge for the Nuggets. If they grab a W, they can make it into the postseason with a win over the Wolves on Wednesday. A loss here and wins by New Orleans, San Antonio, OKC and Minnesota knocks them out.

Blazers projections

  • No. 3: 73.0 percent

  • No. 4: 21.7 percent

  • No. 5: 5.3 percent

Nuggets projections

  • No. 4: 1.2 percent

  • No. 5: 5.8 percent

  • No. 6: 9.3 percent

  • No. 7: 6.9 percent

  • No. 8: 19.8 percent

  • Out: 57.0 percent


  • BPI favorite: Clippers (60.1 percent)

  • Why it matters: Like the Spurs, the Pelicans can secure their spot with a win over a team outside the playoff picture — and avoid making things complicated heading into a Wednesday matchup with San Antonio. New Orleans also clinches with losses by the Nuggets and Wolves.

Pelicans projections

  • No. 4: 6.4 percent

  • No. 5: 15.5 percent

  • No. 6: 19.9 percent

  • No. 7: 16.2 percent

  • No. 8: 24.3 percent

  • Out: 17.8 percent


Most likely playoff matchups

Here’s how BPI projects each conference with three days remaining. Click here to see the matchups if the season ended today.

Western Conference

  • (1) Rockets vs. (8) Pelicans

  • (2) Warriors vs. (7) Wolves

  • (3) Blazers vs. (6) Spurs

  • (4) Thunder vs. (5) Jazz

Eastern Conference

  • (1) Raptors vs. (8) Wizards

  • (2) Celtics vs. (7) Bucks

  • (3) 76ers vs. (6) Heat

  • (4) Cavaliers vs. (5) Pacers



Source : ESPN