The immediate cause of the protests? The carbon taxes on petrol and diesel that Macron had only recently touted as evidence of French leadership on mitigating climate change. As cars and barricades burned on the streets of Paris, Macron’s climate policies also went up in smoke.
It sounds cynical, but the iron law has never yet been broken, and Macron is just the latest world leader to learn this most obvious of lessons. Faced with a weakening domestic political position, erstwhile “climate chancellor” Angela Merkel has been forced to make concessions to the might of the German car industry and the country’s powerful coal mining interests by watering down Germany’s 2020 carbon targets.
What was especially damaging about the “gilet jaunes” protests was that they were clearly reflecting the demands of working people who — while they may accept the science of climate change — still feel that being forced to pay more for their fuel threatens their jobs and livelihoods in the immediate term.
Their anti-elite flavour puts the French protests in the same bracket as populist movements elsewhere. Indeed, the nationalist, anti-intellectual political trends of our age seem to be moving squarely against action on climate change — at just the moment scientists have warned that the window to avoid drastic impacts later this century is rapidly closing.
Of course you will vote for the populist who tells you that you are still a good person and that the job you are doing is worthwhile.
With the rise of Trump, and his stated determination to take the United States out of the Paris climate agreement, some hopefuls looked to the Chinese for carbon emissions leadership. But the “iron law” of climate policy applies as much in Beijing as Washington — perhaps even more so.
President Xi Jinping is determined to keep the Communist Party’s hegemonic grip on power in China, which depends in turn on maintaining the rapid growth that has led to the Chinese economic miracle.
No wonder neither Xi, nor Trump, nor even Macron or Merkel, even showed up for COP24 in Poland. The politics of climate change are such that leaders making grandiose carbon commitments on the world stage are likely to find their positions undermined rather than bolstered at home.
There is a way around the “iron law,” but it means coming up with climate policies that defend and enhance the jobs and livelihoods of working people rather than undermining them.
By embracing just transition, the climate progressives might yet face down the populist naysayers. Let’s hope that the next world leader to embrace the climate agenda understands the need for political — as well as environmental — sustainability.
Source : Nbcnewyork