WARSAW — President Andrzej Duda of Poland appeared on Monday to have narrowly won a second term in the closest presidential election since the end of communist rule in 1989, according to the country’s electoral commission, although the results could still be challenged in court if his opponent claims voters’ rights were infringed.
If the decision stands, Mr. Duda will be able to continue on the path set by a conservative nationalist government that has fought to control the courts and media, while stoking fear of gay people, the European Union, foreigners and, recently, Jews.
Mr. Duda fended off a fierce challenge from Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw. The country’s electoral commission said that with 99.9 percent of the actual vote counted, Mr. Duda had secured 51.21 percent of the vote. Mr. Trzaskowski won 48.79 percent.
Marcin Matczak, a constitutional expert who has been critical of the sweeping changes to the judicial system, said that the courts could get involved if there is a claim of an infringement by either party, and that it would not be hard for either side to find grounds to do so.
Mr. Trzaskowski, he said, could point to obstacles to voting abroad because of the coronavirus pandemic and the use of public television propaganda against him.
“We still do not have full numbers, so the official result cannot be announced,” said Sylwester Marciniak, the head of the Polish Electoral Commission, although he suggested the result would not change.
Sunday’s runoff election was the closest contest in Poland’s post-communist history and had one of the highest turnouts.
The close loss would be a bitter defeat for opponents of the government and Mr. Trzaskowski, who was not even a candidate when the election was postponed in May because of the coronavirus, but mounted a serious challenge against an incumbent president who had the backing of state television and important church leaders.
With the next parliamentary elections not scheduled until 2023, Mr. Duda’s re-election would ensure that the governing Law and Justice party, which also controls the Parliament, would be able to continue to reshape the nation in ways that critics contend undermine open political debate and the rule of law, and put it at odds with the European Union, which has accused Poland of damaging democratic values and institutions.
Mr. Trzaskowski had cast the election as a fight for the soul of the nation. He promised to end a government that uses state media to promote its views and silence opposing voices, manipulates the courts and uses fear and division to build support.
The mayor, whose campaign rallies were as likely to feature the blue and gold of the European Union flag as the red and white of Poland, said he wanted to live in a country where “an open hand wins against a clenched fist.”
Mr. Duda, however, dismissed concerns about Poland’s illiberal drift as an invention of foreign interests looking to exert control over the nation. He cast himself as a defender of “traditional families” and attacked Mr. Trzaskowski over his support for L.G.B.T. rights — powerful arguments in a staunchly Catholic country, particularly outside its cosmopolitan cities.
The incumbent received a boost recently from President Trump, who met with him at the White House just days before the election and all but endorsed Mr. Duda. “He’s doing a terrific job,” Mr. Trump said. “The people of Poland think the world of him.”
An already bitter campaign turned even uglier in the final days before Sunday’s vote, with Mr. Duda, the Law and Justice party and its supporters in the right-wing media launching a barrage of attacks on Mr. Trzaskowski.
In the pro-government weekly Sieci, the Warsaw mayor was accused of supporting pedophilia. State television, which has been turned into a propaganda machine for the government, suggested that Mr. Trzaskowski would be controlled by Jewish interests in complicated questions related to restitution of property dating from World War II.
Xenophobic arguments are nothing new for Law and Justice, which took power in 2015 on a campaign against accepting migrants, has described itself as defending Christianity against foreign forces, and has tarred the European Union as a threat to national autonomy. But appeals tinged with anti-Semitism, in a country whose Jews were largely wiped out in the Holocaust, were generally off-limits until recently.
Independent news outlets faced escalating attacks during the campaign, with the governing party claiming that Germany and other outside powers were trying to meddle in the nation’s affairs.
“Have you ever heard such homophobia, such anti-Semitism, such attacks on everybody who is brave enough to say ‘We have had enough’?” Mr. Trzaskowski asked supporters on Friday.
“It’s now or never,” he said.
While Mr. Trzaskowski and Mr. Duda represented very different visions for Poland, they share remarkably similar backgrounds. Both were born in 1972 and raised by families considered part of the country’s intelligentsia, and both were academics before entering politics as ministers in the European Union.
But their visions for the nation of roughly 38 million could hardly have been more different. Those differences echoed debates playing out in other nations, where traditional democratic values like pluralism have come under assault from populist leaders who undermine institutions and civil society to concentrate power.
According to the exit polls, Mr. Duda overwhelmingly won in the countryside, and Rafal Trzaskowski drew his main support from cities with populations over 500,000. The most hard-fought battle went down in small and midsize towns, were — according to the polls — votes were distributed more equally.
While the Polish president has limited authority, the office comes with veto power, and Mr. Trzaskowski vowed to use that power to provide a counterweight to Law and Justice.
Law and Justice came to power five years ago by calling for Poland to rise from its knees, and it continued to push a nativist message until the last days of the campaign.
Mr. Kaczynski, speaking on a popular Catholic broadcast station, accused the Warsaw mayor of lacking a “Polish soul” and a “Polish heart.”
“Those who currently push to seize power — at present in the presidential elections, but it’s a known fact that it’s not only about that — these are people who question everything which constitutes our tradition.” Mr. Kaczynski said on Friday. “We just don’t want to have decisions being made somewhere outside of the Polish borders.”
While the coronavirus led to a delay in the election, allowing Mr. Trzaskowski to enter the race in May, it was not a major focus of the campaign.
Still, the precautions taken at polling stations — including social-distancing requirements — were a reminder of the lingering threat. And with Law and Justice drawing much of its support from older voters, the party redoubled its efforts to try and ensure that fear of the virus would not limit turnout.
“I can assure you, like many others have, that participation in these elections is really absolutely safe,” Mr. Kaczynski said. “It’s even safer than going to the grocery store.”
An alert from the Government Security Center, which normally sends out text messages to warn citizens of bad weather, was delivered to Polish mobile phones on Saturday reminding people of the elections. “People over the age of 60+, pregnant women and disabled people are entitled to vote at the polling stations without waiting in line,” the alert noted.
In the end, it was older voters that appeared to give Mr. Duda the edge he needed.
Monika Pronczuk reported from Warsaw, and Marc Santora from London. Anatol Magdziarz contributed reporting from Warsaw.
Source : Nytimes
