Ten things I like and don’t like, including the LA Clippers as NBA title favorites

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Before March gets too crazy, let’s look at 10 (actually, 11) NBA things:

1. Here come the Clippers

Remember when people were worried about the Clips losing games without two or three starters, including one of the league’s 10 best players? That was cute.

After destroying the Rockets in Houston Thursday, the full-strength Clippers have won six straight. Their new starting lineup is plus-41 in 95 minutes. They have outscored opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions in 700 minutes with their two superstars on the floor. When they are engaged, they are a nightmare to score on — all spread-out arms and fast feet and sneering faces.

They switch seamlessly across three positions with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Marcus Morris on the floor — and Patrick Beverley is stout and mean enough to make it four in some matchups.

It’s easy to typecast Ivica Zubac as a token starter, but he’s second in the league in offensive rebounding rate and an effective pick-and-roll dance partner for Leonard. Opponents have hit just 46.3% at the rim with Zubac nearby, third-stingiest among rotation players who challenge at least two such shots per game, according to NBA.com.

In this six-game stretch, they’ve been talking more on defense and executing more sophisticated maneuvers on the fly: jump switches from the corner, “scram” switches rescuing smaller guys from the post. That kind of shuffling can leave holes, but the Clippers are usually airtight. When they’re not, they are long and fast enough to close those holes before opponents exploit them.

The same evolution is happening on offense, where Doc Rivers is testing out new screening actions all over the floor. One of George, Leonard, and Morris has a size mismatch at almost all times; if the Clippers don’t like the one they see at the start of a possession, they can move pieces around until they find something more lopsided.

Oh, and Marcus: more of this against smaller guys — and less Jordan/Kobe shots, because you are not Jordan or Kobe (no one is).

Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell are still clowning fools. JaMychal Green is shooting a good-enough 36% from deep; the Clippers have done well playing super-big with Leonard, George, Green, and a center all on the floor. Landry Shamet is solid. Reggie Jackson has amped up his effort by a lot. They have only barely started staggering rotations so that one of Leonard and George is on the floor at all times — if they even need to do that. (They didn’t in blitzing Houston Thursday.)

Chameleons thrive in the playoffs. The Clippers can play at almost any size, and in varying styles. They look like a contender rounding into form. I picked them to win the title before the season, and I’m (gulp) sticking with it.

2. The one-of-a-kind joy of Nikola Jokic

Denver has suffered some alarming recent losses — a blowout against the Clippers, and a dud at home against the Warriors — and it’s fair to question their bonafides as contenders.

But set all that aside, and just appreciate the Joker’s one-of-a-kind passing brilliance. This one made highlight reels:

Even the best outlet passers — from Wes Unseld to Kevin Love — aren’t grabbing rebounds with one hand, and spinning into full-court lasers without using their other hand. This is the NBA version of Rey Ordonez diving to snag a grounder barehanded, popping up, and side-arming a bullet to first base.

This bad boy from the same game received less attention because it didn’t lead to a basket, but it might be even wilder:

Like, what?

I often poke fun at the fake no-look pass — when the passer stares at his target, throws the pass, and only then whips his head in the other direction to create the illusion of something fancy.

Jokic is one of the best real no-lookers left. Can you find any evidence below that Jokic ever sees Gary Harris before slingshotting this baby? Maybe early, when Harris is creeping baseline?

Jokic more or less is Denver’s offense. He is probably the best passing big man ever, with the caveat that we never saw prime Arvydas Sabonis here.

3. New York’s floor balance

It remains astonishing that in the year of our basketball gods 2019, the Knicks drafted a ballhandling bulldozer with a shaky jumper — RJ Barrett — and introduced him to the NBA by surrounding him with: Julius Randle at power forward; paint-bound centers; and point guards who can’t shoot.

Every defender is in the paint. There are no driving gaps. Mitchell Robinson rolls into brick walls.

Less remarked upon has been the harm this inflicts on New York’s transition defense. The Knicks routinely sport some of the league’s worst floor balance, with four and sometimes five players well below the foul line when a shot goes up. New York is 28th in points allowed per transition play, according to Cleaning The Glass. Few events have been more damaging than Randle driving into a forest of bodies, and barfing up some hopeless “oh crap, now I have to pass” lollipop that lands in the hands of an opponent — who promptly streaks into a 3-on-1.

The Knicks have improved their spacing a little by reinserting Wayne Ellington into their rotation, and even sliding Kevin Knox II to power forward for spot minutes. (Downsides: Knox continues to look out of sorts, and what exactly did Damyean Dotson do to deserve outcast status?)

4. Mitchell Robinson, off one dribble

I’m starting to wonder … is James Dolan pulling a stunt? Is this some Joaquin Phoenix “I’m Still Here” thing, where Dolan will reveal all of these insane, embarrassing controversies were part of some decades-long art installation-slash-social experiment? The endurance of true Knicks fans is remarkable.

They need something positive, so here’s this: Robinson, the Knicks’ second-most-important young player — and maybe the one with the most upside — has looked more comfortable over the past month or so finishing after one dribble on the pick-and-roll.

Robinson catches that pass at the 3-point arc. Without that dribble, he’s useless there — a non-threat waiting for someone to rescue him. With it, he’s a scorer who draws help and has options — including Bobby Portis open in the corner.

Robinson ranks seventh in offensive rebounding rate, and that one dribble helps when caroms take him out of dunk range:

There is a perception in some corners of the league that Robinson’s progress has stalled. There has been a two-steps-forward, one-and-a-half-steps-back feel to his sophomore season. He still fouls too much. But New York’s ill-fitting roster and oppressive dysfunction have made it hard for Robinson to show linear growth.

His core strengths certainly haven’t atrophied; opponents shoot 8.9 percentage points worse at the rim with Robinson on the floor, one of the league’s largest discrepancies, per Cleaning The Glass. If you look hard enough, you can see other hopeful signs.

5. Tobias Harris‘ playmaking

Harris is a really good player who does a little bit of everything for a team that because of its weirdo personnel — mega-skills with giant holes — sorely needs a jack-of-all-trades type.

He’s up to 37% from deep after a chilly start. He worked all summer posting up smaller defenders, and has attacked one-on-one more often. (He’s especially dangerous when he brings the ball up in semi-transition with a guard stuck on him, and rampages through that guy toward the rim.) He has doubled his pick-and-roll volume in Philly, a necessity given the Sixers’ nominal point guard refuses to shoot jumpers and is therefore not really a pick-and-roll threat.

Harris can produce a workable shot almost whenever he wants. If there’s something that leaves you wanting, it’s his playmaking. There are corner shooters and baseline cutters — Josh Richardson below — Harris doesn’t see until he’s already launching a long 2:

Sometimes he shoots before compromising the defense:

Harris is dishing three assists per game — a career high. Philly needs a little more, and that isn’t his fault. Ben Simmons isn’t yet an every-possession creator in a slowed-down, half-court game. It is hard for a post behemoth — Joel Embiid — to play that role today. It was Jimmy Butler‘s job last season. The Sixers hoped Richardson would soak up more of that duty — he still might — but he hasn’t settled in. Alec Burks is helping, but is he closing playoff games? Maybe Shake Milton is the answer.

All of this has left Harris overtaxed as a playmaker.

Talking about player salaries is unpleasant. It’s also reality in a salary-cap league. For all the anxiety surrounding the Embiid/Simmons fit, the Sixers just aren’t getting enough production for the $60 million they are paying Harris and Al Horford — almost double-max money.

6. CJ McCollum‘s hesitation crossover

McCollum during Damian Lillard‘s six-game absence, which ended Wednesday against Washington: 33.3 points per game on 49% shooting — 41% from deep — and almost 8.5 assists. He earned nearly six free throws per game, more than double his average.



Source : ESPN