Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke are all in deep danger of not making November’s debate.
That means Tuesday may be the last chance fo those four to give their campaigns a realistic chance to have a measure of success.
A strong performance on Tuesday’s debate stage could help their chances to make the November event. While it’s difficult to argue that any of the debates so far have had a long-lasting effect on the race, Castro, Gabbard, Klobuchar and O’Rourke really just need a momentary bump in the polls. There have been instantaneous rises and drops in candidates’ numbers this cycle.
Will we see one of those moments on Tuesday night?
Castro and Gabbard likely need it more than Klobuchar or O’Rourke. They’ll need to create new support that hasn’t been there in the past.
For their part, Klobuchar and O’Rourke have shown an ability to do better than they are doing in the polls right now. They have hit the 3% (or 5% in the early states) threshold a number of times in the past.
What Klobuchar and O’Rourke need to do is reverse is bad trendlines.
Now, missing a debate doesn’t mean a candidacy is over. There are a number of candidates who haven’t made the last two debates but are still campaigning.
The problem for Castro, Gabbard, Klobuchar and O’Rourke is that missing the debate stage means less media coverage and less of a chance to beef up fundraising numbers. A number of 2020 candidates have dropped out after missing a previous debate, such as New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper and California Rep. Eric Swalwell.
Going forward, the debate thresholds likely are going to get even harder to cross.
Source : CNN