The trade conflict has reached a new level of seriousness that will be difficult to reverse. The risk is that the trade war is approaching the point at which it causes a severe economic slowdown or even a recession.
By digging into their positions, both the United States and China increase the risk of breaking an economy that is already starting to crack. Each round of escalation gets them closer to a recession — and to a point of no return.
“We have a trade situation that is going off the rails,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, wrote in a note to clients on Monday. “The policy of using tariffs as a tool to address our legitimate beefs with the Chinese has failed miserably.”
David Kotok, co-founder and chief investment officer of investment firm Cumberland Advisors, told CNN Business that “this stupid tariff war we’re having” is raising the risk of a recession.
“Things are escalating and the escalation is not over,” Kotok said.
Trade war fatigue
Investors around the world are spooked.
Investors piled into government bonds, driving the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.75%, the lowest level in nearly three years.
“The escalating US-China trade war will certainly be bad for the US economy. How bad is almost impossible to calculate,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities Corporation.
Hogan said that the worse the trade war gets, the faster a recession could arrive in the United States.
“Historically, recessions occur in reaction to a monetary policy mistake. This is the first time we may have to deal with a trade policy miscalculation,” he said.
Many investors and business executives broadly agree with the Trump administration’s desire to get China to play fair on trade. Beijing’s non-tariff trade barriers, including forced technology transfers, have long hurt American businesses.
However, there is growing concern about Trump’s use of tariffs as a way of getting concessions.
Next round of tariffs will hit consumers
The new tariffs, which are scheduled to go into effect on September 1, would target everything from apparel and footwear to electronics such as smartphones. More than previous rounds of tariffs that shielded finished goods, these levies would hit US households, the strength of the American economy.
“If you inject uncertainty during back-to-school and holiday shopping, that will have a drag on the economy,” Hogan said.
The Chamber of Commerce warned last week that these new tariffs “will only inflict greater pain on American businesses, farmers, workers and consumers, and undermine an otherwise strong US economy.”
America’s farmers won’t get relief any time soon. China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed that Chinese companies have halted purchases of US agricultural products.
“We may experience more delinquencies, which then become very difficult for those communities and our ag sector,” McWilliams said.
Currency war fears
“China retaliates: on a scale of 1-10, it’s an 11,” Chris Krueger, senior policy analyst at the Cowen Washington Research Group, wrote in a note to clients.
The fact that China decided not to defend its currency further suggests Beijing is digging in for a longer trade war. Officials are no longer trying to avoid Trump’s currency wrath.
“China is taking a darker and more cynical view of Trump’s objectives with China,” said Michael Hirson, Eurasia Group’s practice head of China and Northeast Asia. “They’re becoming increasingly pessimistic about their ability to steer Trump away from further escalation.”
“It’s the currency risk that is the most volatile, hardest to see and the fastest reacting,” said Kotok. “That’s the left hook that can knock out the boxer.”
Nervous investors flocked to gold, driving the precious metal above $1,460 an ounce for the first time since May 2013.
However, Hirson said China is “not weaponizing its currency.” Rather, he argued officials in Beijing are trying to take ownership for a decision they would have needed to make eventually.
And there are powerful incentives preventing China from allowing its currency to sharply devalue. Such a move would panic investors, destabilize financial markets and trigger a wave of foreign capital that Beijing has been desperately trying to attract.
Can the Fed offset the trade war?
The problem is that this trade war escalation is occurring against a backdrop of cracks in the global economy. China’s growth has already slowed. Manufacturing surveys around the world have tumbled.
US factory activity in July decelerated to the weakest level in nearly three years. A closely watched gauge of US service sector activity declined on Monday to a level unseen since August 2016.
And global central banks don’t have much room to offset economic turmoil. Borrowing costs are already extremely cheap. Lowering them further won’t directly offset trade uncertainty.
“Central banks are running out of bullets,” said Kotok.
Morgan Stanley warns of 10% retreat
That’s why Morgan Stanley on Monday said it has “high conviction” US stocks will experience a 10% correction before the end of September. The S&P 500 is already about halfway there.
The trade war and Fed developments have opened markets up to a “meaningful downside based on the deteriorating fundamentals that can no longer be ignored,” Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist, wrote in a note to clients.
Of course, the market pain could force Washington and Beijing to reverse course.
But Hirson suggested China and the United States remain stuck in an escalatory feedback loop.
“The more Trump increases pressure on China,” he said, “the more difficult it becomes for the leadership there to back down because that makes it look like they are negotiating at gunpoint.”
In other words, the trade war looks likely to get worse before it gets better.
Source : Nbcnewyork
