Week 12 NFL betting trends to know


Road teams continue to dominate the NFL season, going 9-4-1 against the spread (ATS) last week, and are now hitting at a 58% success rate through Thursday’s game. Last week, the road favorites did the heavy lifting by going 5-0 ATS.

Entering this week, New England and Dallas were the only two teams to be favored in every game this season. That streak will end as the two teams square off this week with New England favored. It is the 58th consecutive game New England has been favored in, extending its record in the Super Bowl era.

As for the entire Week 12 slate, here are some trends and nuggets to watch.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1), 1 p.m. ET

• Seattle is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games including the playoffs, and it is 5-0 outright on the road this season (4-1 ATS).

• Since the start of last season, Seattle is 8-3-1 ATS in games when the line is between +3 and -3. Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in that span.

• In his career (including the playoffs), Russell Wilson is 10-2 ATS and outright on the road against the AFC East and NFC East.

• Since the start of last season, Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS as a favorite against teams that entered with a winning record (2-4 SU).

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-10.5), 1 p.m. ET

• Miami is 5-1 ATS since its bye week (last week was the first time it did not cover).

Baker Mayfield is 2-7 ATS in his career following an ATS win (Cleveland covered last week against Pittsburgh).

• This is the second time since the franchise returned to Cleveland in 1999 that Cleveland has been a double-digit favorite. The other time was in Week 17 of 2007 when Cleveland beat San Francisco, 20-7 as a 13.5-point home favorite. That is the longest double-digit favorite drought by any team.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-4), 1 p.m. ET

Josh Allen is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite in his career, including 1-4 ATS as a single-digit home favorite (3-2 outright).

• Denver has covered five of its last six games, including in both of Brandon Allen‘s starts.

• Three of Denver’s seven losses have been by two or fewer points, and only three of those losses were by more than four points.

• The total is currently 37.5. The lowest over/under this season is 37 (three games). Games with over/unders in the 30’s are 10-5 to the over this season.

• Seven of 10 Buffalo games have gone under the total this season while 14 of the last 18 Denver games have gone under the total. However, the last three Denver games all went over.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET

• Mike Tomlin is 8-18 ATS in his career as a road favorite of at least six points.

• Pittsburgh has won each of the last eight regular-season meetings, going 6-2 ATS in that span.

• In the last 20 regular-season meetings in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh is 16-4 ATS, including 11-3 ATS as a favorite.

• Cincinnati is 0-10 this season and has lost 12 straight games outright. It is 6-6 ATS during its losing streak (4-6 ATS this season).

• In the last four seasons, home teams that are 0-5 or worse outright are 4-13 ATS.

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6), 1 p.m. ET

• New York is 9-4 ATS on the road the last two seasons, including a loss this season when it was the road team against the Jets. Ten of the 13 games went over the total.

• Twelve of Chicago’s last 15 games have gone under the total (including playoffs), including each of the last four.

• Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.

Oakland Raiders (-3) at New York Jets, 1 p.m. ET

• This is the second time in the current Jon Gruden era (since 2018) that Oakland has been a road favorite. Last year, it lost 34-3 as a 1.5-point favorite in San Francisco.

• Oakland is 4-8 ATS on the road in the current Gruden era (3-8 ATS in last 11 games).

Source : ESPN