LONDON — A small but influential party aligned with Prime Minister Theresa May’s government suggested on Friday that it still cannot support her plan for Britain’s departure from the European Union, a development that could doom her hopes of persuading Parliament to pass the deal next week on the third try.
The Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland holds just 10 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. But the central sticking point in the talks on a British withdrawal has been how to handle the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, and the party’s position carries disproportionate weight with others in Parliament.
Parliament has twice rejected the agreement that Mrs. May negotiated with the European Union for Britain’s departure, known as Brexit, and both times the D.U.P. has voted against it, largely because of concerns about the border issue.
If parliament rejects the deal again, there is still the possibility of a cliff-edge Brexit in the short term or a much longer delay to renegotiate the agreement to leave.
Mrs. May’s position appears to grow more precarious by the day — not only her chances of winning approval of the Brexit deal, but her hold on power. Longstanding talk that she could be ousted by her own party, or by Parliament as a whole, has intensified, becoming a constant rumble in the background to everything she says or does.
On Tuesday, the speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, ruled that she could not bring her plan to a vote for a third time without a substantive change to it. On Wednesday, she delivered a speech blaming the paralysis on Parliament, angering lawmakers on all sides.
On Thursday, European Union leaders agreed to postpone the March 29 departure date, but refused the prime minister’s request for a three-month delay, only giving her until next week to win parliamentary approval for her deal or come up with some alternative by April 12. If her deal is agreed by parliament, Britain’s exit will be pushed back to May 22. On Friday came the blow from the D.U.P., and on Monday, lawmakers will try once again to seize some control over Brexit policy from Mrs. May.
Nigel Dodds, the leader of the D.U.P.’s caucus in Parliament, said in a statement posted on the party’s website that it was “inexcusable” that Mrs. May had met with the bloc’s leaders but had not won any major concessions.
“The government has been far too willing to capitulate before securing the necessary changes which would get an agreement through the House of Commons,” he said.
His party and many others who support a withdrawal contend that Mrs. May’s deal could leave Britain trapped, by making it subject to some European Union economic rules indefinitely. And by treating Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the nation, they say, the deal risks splitting the United Kingdom apart.
“Nothing has changed as far as the Withdrawal Agreement is concerned,” Mr. Dodds said. “We will not accept any deal which poses a long-term risk to the constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom.”
Mrs. May has planned to try for a third vote in Parliament, but she would need to win the votes of about 70 members. That was considered a tall order even before Mr. Dodds’s message, and several Brexit supporters from the prime minister’s Conservative Party had said they would follow the D.U.P.’s lead.
She still has a few more days to win over her critics, and is unlikely to take Mr. Dodds’s statement as his party’s final word. But it is another blow to her, capping a frenetic week of setbacks.
With Mrs. May’s leadership being questioned by fellow Conservatives, a third rejection of her plan would increase pressure on her to resign. Her shifting signals on how she might proceed after such a defeat have alienated some lawmakers.
She has little room for error. Conservatives are short of a majority, and have been able to govern — until recently — with the support of the D.U.P.
On Monday, Parliament is scheduled to consider what could be the first major step toward taking control of the process away from her government. They will vote on whether to hold a rapid-fire series of votes on specific alternatives to her plan.
A similar proposal was defeated last week, but by just two votes, 314 to 312, and Mrs. May’s standing has not improved since then.
Having Parliament state its preferences could allow some form of cross-party consensus to emerge in favor of a form of Brexit that keeps closer ties to the European Union than Mrs. May, or most of her party, would like. That would require reopening negotiations with the bloc, which would mean a long delay.
European leaders have made it clear that they doubt Parliament will approve Mrs. May’s plan, one reason they were willing to grant only a short postponement. The extension makes April 12 the new date that Britain will leave the union, if Parliament rejects the deal again or if Mrs. May cannot create a credible alternative.
Leaving without a pact in place with Europe would upend Britain’s trade relationships and experts say it would do serious economic damage — a prospect that the prime minister has used to pressure those who want a soft Brexit or no Brexit.
But the hard-core Brexit supporters like the idea of a “no-deal” withdrawal, and insist that the predictions of harm are wrong, leaving them little incentive to support Mrs. May.
Meanwhile, pro-European Conservatives, who regard an abrupt and chaotic departure with dread, may be motivated to turn against her and vote on Monday to exert more parliamentary control.
Under the new timetable, if Parliament approves Mrs. May’s deal, Brexit will take effect on May 22, giving Britain time to work out some of the details.
The alternative, European Union officials have said, is a long delay, possibly two years, for Britain to rethink its position and, possibly, restart negotiations.
Source : Nytimes
