Week 6 features a number of strong options in Eliminator Challenge. Three teams all have at least a 90% chance of winning their games, according to Mike Clay’s model. All three are double-digit favorites at Caesars Sportsbook.
However, those three favorites are also three of the four best teams in the NFL, according to ESPN Analytics model, with the Buffalo Bills first, the Kansas City Chiefs third and the Miami Dolphins fourth. Each of the three has at least four remaining games where they will be at least 80% favorites after this week.
While taking those favorites are clearly strong choices, there are alternatives if you wish to save them for later. Clay gives the Atlanta Falcons a 75% chance to beat the Commanders, their highest chance to win a game this season. Meanwhile, ESPN Analytics makes the Los Angeles Rams the fourth-biggest favorites of the week as they host the Arizona Cardinals.
If you have followed the top choice in the space the previous five weeks, you will have used the Washington Commanders, Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions. That leaves the Dolphins as the best choice remaining, though the Rams and Falcons are fine alternatives.
Click here to download Mike Clay’s Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly.
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
The Panthers are the only winless team left in the NFL, and ESPN Analytics rates them as the worst team in the league. Heading on the road against the Dolphins is as difficult a spot as it gets. The only thing holding the Dolphins back from being a slam dunk pick is their future schedule. They have home games remaining against the Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, and Tennessee Titans, a road game against the Commanders, and two games left against the New York Jets. Mike Clay gives the Dolphins at least a 77% chance to win each of those games.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 91%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 88%
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Caesars Sportsbook: 13.5-point favorites (-900 moneyline)
New York Giants at Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Sunday 8:20 PM ET
This game projects as the single most-lopsided game of the season according to both ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay. The Bills rate as the best team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, while the Giants are second-worst, as they have yet to cover a spread all season. Like the Dolphins, this looks like as close to a free square as it gets in Week 6. However, the Bills also project as the most likely team to win in three of their next five games, so there is opportunity cost in using them now. They also have the X factor of returning from playing in London last week, which helps drop them to second-best option this week.
The Chiefs are also a strong choice as a double-digit favorite, but with Travis Kelce’s injury, the Bills get a slight edge.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 96%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 89%
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Caesars Sportsbook: 14-point favorites (-900 moneyline)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday 4:25 PM ET
The long-term play this week could be to save the Dolphins, Bills and Chiefs and take a smaller favorite. Both the Rams and Falcons make a lot of sense, with the ESPN Analytics model preferring the Rams, and Mike Clay’s model opting for the Falcons. The tie goes to the Rams, who are the healthiest they have been all season with Cooper Kupp back and Matthew Stafford thriving. They host the Cardinals, who are the third-worst team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics and have come back down to earth the past two weeks with back-to-back double-digit losses. The Rams are the fourth-biggest favorites this week in the betting odds. They have also dominated the Cardinals under Sean McVay, going 10-2 outright and against the spread.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 70%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 73%
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Caesars Sportsbook: 6.5-point favorites (-292 moneyline)
Source : ESPN
