The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at least one mention of each of the league’s 32 teams. Though efficiency will be discussed plenty, the column will lean heavily on usage data, as volume is king (by far) in fantasy football. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for the upcoming week and beyond. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Note that data from Monday Night Football may not immediately be reflected in charts.
Opportunity alert
Throughout the below team-by-team rundowns, I’ll be referencing “OFP” and “OTD.” OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy points. Imagine a league in which players are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs every pass/carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player’s opportunity to score fantasy points, or his expected fantasy point total. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that a league average player who saw the same workload in the same location on the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. FORP is the difference between a player’s actual fantasy point total and his OFP. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, it’s touchdowns. Volume is king in fantasy football, so this is not information you want to overlook.
That said, here is the post-Week 8 OFP Leaderboard:
Next, here are the players who exceeded their OFP by the largest margin this past week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy production moving forward, assuming they see a similar workload:
And these are the players who fell short of their OFP by the largest margin last week and thus you shouldn’t be too quick to overreact to their performance when making lineup, trade or waiver decisions:
Team-by-team rundowns
Christian Kirk returned from injury and posted an 8-79-0 receiving line on 11 targets against the Saints. Kirk picked up where he left off prior to his Week 4 injury, playing 86% of the snaps. Kirk has reached 11 targets in three of his five games this season, though he’s yet to find the end zone and has fallen short of 40 yards twice. Kirk’s volume is impossible to ignore and history suggests it will inevitably lead to consistent fantasy production (not to mention the occasional touchdown). Kirk is a fine WR3 play.
Following the trade of Mohamed Sanu to New England, it was Russell Gage who stepped in as Atlanta’s No. 3 receiver. Gage was on the field for 56% of the snaps on Sunday, which trailed only Calvin Ridley (79%) and Julio Jones (75%). Christian Blake (20%), Justin Hardy (15%) and Olamide Zaccheaus (3%) also saw the field. Gage posted a 7-58-0 receiving line in a game that saw Matt Schaub throw for 460 yards on 52 pass attempts. The volume obviously won’t be that high moving forward, but with Atlanta’s defense struggling badly, opportunity won’t elude the team’s top pass catchers very often. Gage, a 2018 sixth-round pick, makes for a fine dynasty stash, but he doesn’t need to be added to season-long rosters except in very deep leagues.
Lamar Jackson entered Baltimore’s Week 8 bye as fantasy’s No. 1 quarterback, and it’s no fluke. Jackson has reached 20 fantasy points in six of seven starts, finishing each of those weeks as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Jackson was the No. 1 quarterback in OFP (No. 2 overall) through seven weeks, pacing the position in carries (83) and sitting 12th in drop backs (257). Jackson’s passing efficiency has been around league average, but an 83-576-3 rushing line has supplied him with a very high floor. Jackson is a strong QB1 and, though he’ll need to be downgraded, he’s still a viable starting option against the vaunted Patriots defense in Week 9.
Since clearing 55 receiving yards in back-to-back games during Weeks 3 to 4, rookie Dawson Knox has crashed back to earth over the past month. The third-round pick has generated a total of 34 yards on 11 targets during his past three games. That includes a catch-less outing on one target against the Eagles on Sunday. Knox has seen his role reduced since Tyler Kroft returned from injury in Week 7. Kroft has played 52% of the snaps, compared to 50% for Knox and 34% for Lee Smith. Knox is only worth a roster spot in dynasty and perhaps some deep two-tight end leagues.
If you’re in rough shape at the quarterback position and looking for a potential second-half boost, check and see if Cam Newton is available on waivers. Kyle Allen has been solid in place of Newton, but struggled in Sunday’s blowout loss in San Francisco, which very well could expedite Newton’s return to the lineup. Newton struggled while less than 100% healthy in two early-season starts, but don’t let that overshadow the fact that the 30-year-old quarterback has posted five top-five fantasy campaigns since 2011. In fact, Newton ranked eighth or better in fantasy points per game in seven of his eight NFL seasons prior to 2019. Assuming he’s able to use both his arm and legs upon his return, Newton will quickly reenter the QB1 mix. As of Monday, Newton was available in 56.1 percent of ESPN leagues.
Coach Matt Nagy said the Bears were going to run the football more, and it’s safe to say he followed through. After calling 56 passes and seven runs in Week 8, Chicago called 41 passes and a season-high 36 runs against the Chargers on Sunday. The biggest benefactor was David Montgomery, who had a career day with 27 carries, five targets, 147 scrimmage yards and one touchdown. The rookie played a hefty 73% of the snaps, which was well ahead of both Tarik Cohen (21%) and Mike Davis (14%). Montgomery, who has only two weekly finishes better than 28th, is still a bit risky, but the heavy usage makes him easier to trust as a flex.
The Bengals’ offense had some life against the Rams on Sunday, and Tyler Eifert was one of the biggest benefactors. Eifert played 71% of the Bengals’ offensive snaps, which is his highest usage since he played 79% in Week 2 of the 2017 season. He converted the promotion into a 6-74-0 receiving line on nine targets. Despite the strong performance, we’ll need to see more before Eifert can be counted on as a weekly starter. The 29-year-old entered the week having fallen short of 28 yards in seven consecutive games to open the season, totaling one touchdown during the span. Only consider an add in leagues that start two tight ends.
Odell Beckham Jr. posted another underwhelming receiving line Sunday (5-52-0) and has now fallen short of 57 yards during four of his past five games. Of course, Beckham has faced the extremely tough 49ers and Patriots defenses during that span, which shouldn’t be overlooked. In fact, Beckham and the Browns’ receivers have faced a pretty tough slate of defenses this season, specifically the teams that rank 23rd, 8th, 22nd, 12th, 30th, 21st and 31st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. That’s right: they’ve yet to face a defense that is currently worse than eighth in the category. The schedule lightens up a bit later this season, but it’s far from a walk in the park, especially with Denver (32nd) and Buffalo (28th) up next. Despite the recent struggles, Beckham’s healthy target share and high-end talent keep him in the top-15 conversation at wide receiver.
After finding the end zone in both Weeks 1 and 2, Jason Witten has predictably crashed back to earth. Witten has played 75% of Dallas’ offensive snaps, but has failed to clear 57 yards in a single game and hasn’t found the end zone during his past five games. Witten has six or more fantasy points in all seven games, so he’s a high-floor option in two-tight end leagues, but there’s minimal upside here, as he’s managed only one top-10 week.
Following the trade of Emmanuel Sanders to San Francisco, it was expected that DaeSean Hamilton would take on a larger share of Denver’s targets. Instead, Hamilton was limited to 62% of the snaps and failed to catch his only target against the Colts on Sunday. Hamilton worked behind Courtland Sutton (92% snap share) and Fred Brown (62%), but he was well ahead of Diontae Spencer (11%) and Juwann Winfree (6%). Hamilton entered the week having playing 63% of the snaps while averaging 2.9 targets per game, so it appears his role hasn’t changed much, if at all. Hamilton should not be in lineups and, despite the playing time, Brown doesn’t need to be rostered with Tim Patrick due back from injured reserve in Week 11. Patrick is a name to consider in deep dynasty leagues.
With Kerryon Johnson done for the season, it was Tra Carson who got the start at running back for the Lions in Week 8. Carson racked up 12 carries but wasn’t targeted on 19 snaps. Hot waiver add Ty Johnson paced the backfield in snaps (23) and targets (four), but he was limited to seven carries. J.D. McKissic (one carry and three targets on 16 snaps) and Paul Perkins (three carries on six snaps) also chipped in. It’s possible one of these backs will emerge as the lead back, but for now, none can be counted on as starters. Johnson and Carson are fine to add to your bench, whereas McKissic and Perkins belong on waivers.
If the past two weeks are any indication, Allen Lazard is Green Bay’s No. 2 wide receiver. Lazard has paced Packers wide receivers in snaps (90 of a possible 119), routes (54-of-70) and targets (9-of-60) during the stretch. The heavy usage hasn’t led to much fantasy success, as the second-year receiver posted 42 receiving yards in both games. That’s not ideal considering Davante Adams is expected back from injury this week. Lazard, Geronimo Allison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Jake Kumerow each played between 34 and 44 snaps in what was essentially a four-man committee on Sunday. It’s possible they all rotate in behind Adams going forward, which would severely limit their fantasy production. Adams is the only Packers’ receiver who should be in lineups right now.
Darren Fells found the end zone twice Sunday and now has a pair of two-touchdown games under his belt this season. The 33-year-old has scored a total of five touchdowns, but he has fallen short of three receptions and 28 receiving yards in five of eight outings. The long-time blocking tight end was on the field for 89% of Houston’s snaps Sunday and sits at 81% over the past four weeks. Fells ranks fourth at tight end in end zone targets (five) and 10th in OTD (2.5), though the latter suggests he’s in for some serious regression to the mean in the touchdown department moving forward. Fells, who entered 2019 with 10 career touchdowns on 68 receptions, is no more than a boom/bust, touchdown-dependent TE2.
Marlon Mack has been a bit quiet this season with Indianapolis scoring most of its touchdowns through the air, but the 23-year-old back hasn’t been short on carries. Mack carried the ball 19 times against Denver on Sunday and has now reached 16 rushing attempts in all but one game this season. He currently sits seventh in the league in carries (138) and eighth in rushing yards (590). Despite the healthy rushing production in seven games, Mack has been limited to one top-12 fantasy week and the 20th-most fantasy points at the position. The problem? A lack of receiving work. Mack has converted 13 targets into 11 catches for 68 yards and zero touchdowns. Mack sits 24th at the position in OFP, so it appears he’s settled in as the fringe RB2 we expected once Andrew Luck retired.
DJ Chark got back on track Sunday following the first “slump” of his breakout 2019 season. Chark failed to find the end zone or clear 53 yards during his previous two games, but posted a 6-79-1 receiving line on a career-high 12 targets Sunday. Chark has now scored in five of eight games this season and is averaging 82.5 receiving yards per game. The 2018 second-round pick sits fifth among wide receivers in fantasy points, 10th in OFP, fifth in end zone targets (eight) and second in yards per reception (16.9). Chark has the look of a legit No. 1 receiver and should be locked into weekly lineups.
Sammy Watkins returned from what was essentially a three-game absence on Sunday night. Despite some strong performances from his teammates in recent weeks, Watkins stepped right back into a full-time role, running 35 of a possible 38 routes in the game. Watkins was targeted eight times but held below 65 yards and without a touchdown for the fourth consecutive game. The recent production will make him hard to trust in lineups as long as Matt Moore is under center, but Watkins’ usage suggests he’ll jump right back into the top-25 conversation once Patrick Mahomes is healthy. Make sure Watkins is rostered in your league.
Philip Rivers has rarely been a good fantasy asset in recent years (he’s finished one of his past five seasons better than 11th), but that’s especially been the case in 2019. Rivers has reached 300 passing yards in five of eight games, but he hasn’t thrown three touchdowns in a game since Week 1. Rivers hasn’t finished a week better than eighth among quarterbacks in fantasy points and has finished 16th or worse four times. It’s the same old story, but Rivers is nothing more than a streamer/bye-week replacement.
Brandin Cooks went down with a head injury on his third snap of Sunday’s game, which thrust Josh Reynolds back into a full-time role. The rare wide receiver “handcuff” played 88% of the snaps and was targeted eight times, posting a 3-73-1 receiving line along the way. Reynolds had failed to clear two targets in any game prior to Sunday, so he’s only worth considering on waivers if Cooks will miss time. Reynolds posted a 26-365-5 receiving line and was the No. 33 scoring fantasy wide receiver in eight games in place of an injured Cooper Kupp last season.
Miami traded Kenyan Drake to Arizona on Monday, which opened the door for Mark Walton to take over not only as lead back, but as the Dolphins’ workhorse. Walton played 88% of the snaps against Pittsburgh, racking up 11 carries and six targets along the way. Backup Kalen Ballage touched the ball on four of his nine snaps. Walton was held to 54 yards in the game, but ran for 66 yards the week prior and had a season-best 75 scrimmage yards in Week 6. Walton has yet to find the end zone, and while that might be tough to do in Miami’s low-scoring offense, the Dolphins have scored at least two offensive touchdowns in three consecutive games. Walton lacks upside, but his workhorse role positions him as a flex option against the Jets in Week 9.
Alexander Mattison put up 64 yards on 15 touches against the Redskins in Week 8. The rookie has now rushed for at least 49 yards in five of his first eight NFL games. Despite the decent rushing numbers, Mattison is not close to standalone fantasy value just yet. Mattison has registered a grand total of three targets on the season, he has seven or fewer touches in half of his outings and he has played only 23% of the offensive snaps (including no more than 32% in a single game). That all being said, Mattison is an elite handcuff, as he’d be a strong RB1 option in the event of a Dalvin Cook injury. He’s worth a roster spot in most leagues.
Mohamed Sanu made his Patriots debut Sunday and was limited to 53% of the snaps. The former Falcons’ slot man worked behind Julian Edelman (95%) and Phillip Dorsett (92%) but was well ahead of Jakobi Meyers (36%). Sanu was targeted five times and posted a 2-23-0 receiving line. Though the debut wasn’t particularly inspiring, Sanu’s role will only increase as he becomes integrated into the offense. He’ll be a candidate for five-to-seven targets most weeks and is a flex option against Baltimore in Week 9.
Drew Brees was back in action on Sunday, but Jared Cook was not. Cook has missed each of the Saints’ past two games, with Josh Hill (played 76% of the snaps on Sunday), Dan Arnold (33%) and the versatile Taysom Hill (21%) filling the void. Hill has posted receiving lines of 3-43-1 and 3-39-0 over the past two weeks, whereas Arnold has totaled 25 yards on four targets during the span. Neither should be in lineups and that also applies to QB-eligible Hill. If you’re weak at tight end and are looking for a long-term option, check and see if Cook is on waivers. He’ll be back in the TE1 conversation once healthy now that Brees is back under center.
Darius Slayton exploded for a pair of touchdowns Sunday, but before you overspend on waivers, there are two things to keep in mind: (1) Sterling Shepard was out and could return as soon as Week 9, and (2) Slayton scored on his only two receptions and was targeted five times in the game. Slayton played 85% of the snaps and will remain a desperation flex in deep leagues if Shepard remains out, but the rookie would still be behind Golden Tate (10 targets on Sunday), Saquon Barkley (10) and Evan Engram (seven) in terms of target priority. The fifth-round rookie has flashed enough that he’s worth a bench spot in 12-team leagues, but he’s not a starter just yet.
Veteran TE Ryan Griffin posted a 4-66-2 receiving line on four targets against the Jaguars on Sunday. No, he’s not a player you want to go after on waivers this week. Griffin has been playing a full-time role for New York since Week 1, but he entered Week 8 with a total of nine catches, 46 yards and one score on 12 targets. Second-year Chris Herndon is week-to-week with a hamstring injury and figures to quickly step into a full-time role once healthy. Even in two-tight end leagues, Griffin is not a good weekly starter.
Hunter Renfrow snuck away for a 65-yard touchdown Sunday and ended up with a career-best 4-88-1 receiving line. Despite the big day, consider that Oakland’s slot receiver only played 62% of the snaps and entered the week having failed to clear 30 yards in any of his first six NFL games. Renfrow is clearly behind Tyrell Williams (89% of the snaps on Sunday) on the depth chart, and the role of newcomer Zay Jones, who played 40% of the snaps in his Oakland debut on Sunday, only figures to increase. Renfrow is not worth your attention on waivers.
Miles Sanders has struggled to emerge as a consistent fantasy contributor as a rookie, but the Penn State product certainly has shown flashes of his play-making ability. That was on display Sunday when Sanders posted big plays of 25 and 65 yards en route to racking up 118 yards on six touches before leaving with an injury. Sanders has been limited to 66 carries for 294 yards on the season, but he has produced 274 yards on only 19 receptions (23 targets). Sanders has posted a pair of top-10 fantasy weeks during his past three outings, but he finished 34th or worse in five of eight weeks. Sanders, who has played 38% of the snaps this season, is best left on benches until his role increases.
Vance McDonald has run a route on a career-high 64% of Pittsburgh’s snaps when active this season, but the workload hasn’t led to much fantasy production. A 7-38-2 receiving line on seven targets in Week 2 aside, McDonald has otherwise failed to reach five targets or score a touchdown in five other games. In fact, McDonald hasn’t cleared 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 6 of the 2018 season. He has one top-20 fantasy week under his belt this season and, at least for now, is well off the fantasy radar with Mason Rudolph under center.
Emmanuel Sanders played 83% of the snaps during his 49ers’ debut Sunday. He was the clear No. 1 receiver, with Deebo Samuel (68%), Kendrick Bourne (44%), Dante Pettis (32%) and Richie James (24%) also involved. Sanders was “only” targeted five times, but that works out to a 22.7 percent target share in a game that saw the 49ers run 22 pass plays. San Francisco’s run-heavy scheme figures to limit Sanders’ upside throughout the season, but the large share of the snaps and targets is a good sign that he can provide WR3 numbers.
DK Metcalf scored a pair of touchdowns during Sunday’s win in Atlanta. The rookie only caught three passes and totaled 13 receiving yards in the game, but the good news is that he played 91% of the snaps and reached five targets for the third-consecutive week and for the sixth time in eight games this season. Metcalf is up to four touchdowns on the season and paces the entire NFL with 13 end zone targets. Metcalf has reached 53 yards in five of eight games and sits 30th among wide receivers in fantasy points. Metcalf is a serviceable flex option with massive touchdown upside.
Bruce Arians just won’t hand the keys to Ronald Jones II. Despite the USC product flashing at times throughout his second NFL season, Jones has been limited to 12 or fewer touches in three consecutive games. That includes exactly 12 touches during Sunday’s loss to the Titans. Jones played 26% of the snaps, compared to 36% for Dare Ogunbowale and 32% for Peyton Barber. Jones reached 70 rushing yards during three of his first four games, but he has totaled 80 yards during his past three outings. Jones is stuck in a committee, has a grand total of 10 targets in seven games and has cleared 35 rushing yards in only four games. Until he solidifies a lead back role, Jones should be on benches.
One week after it appeared Ryan Tannehill was the hero we needed in our quest to find consistent fantasy production from Corey Davis (among other Titans pass catchers), we were let down in a big way. Davis had the added benefit of a terrific matchup against a struggling Tampa Bay pass defense, but he was held to a 2-9-0 receiving line on six targets. In fact, Titans wide receivers combined for 62 yards on 10 receptions against a defense that entered the week allowing a league-high 203.8 yards per game to the position. Davis and Brown remain fine bench options, but after what we saw in Week 8, neither are safe plays in Carolina next week.
Terry McLaurin has posted receiving lines of 1-11-0 and 4-39-0 on a total of eight targets during his past two games. That after the rookie was targeted seven-plus times and posted 50-plus receiving yards in each of his first five NFL games, totaling five touchdowns along the way. Of course, the recent slump is hardly his fault. Neither passing game could get anything going in a game ruined by heavy rain two weeks ago, and McLaurin was on his way to a solid night prior to Case Keenum’s injury this past Thursday. McLaurin will be a risky play if Dwayne Haskins is under center, but he has a good enough connection with Keenum that he should be locked into lineups if the veteran is ready to roll for Week 9.
Source : ESPN
