In watching the 2022 NBA Finals, it was clear that the Celtics could benefit from the presence of another floor general. Neither of their two best players, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, were natural team offense creators.
They were among the most prolific finishers in the NBA, but creating for teammates off the dribble didn’t seem to come naturally, and the Warriors exploited that. Tatum and Brown, who had averaged 7.9 combined assists and 5.6 combined turnovers in the regular season, upped that to 9.7 combined assists and 7.3 combined turnovers in the playoffs as they, particularly Tatum, took more team creation responsibilities into their own hands.
The effect was most pronounced in the Finals, where Tatum and Brown averaged 10.7 combined assists and 7.2 combined turnovers, but saw their scoring averages plummet from 50.5 combined PPG on 46.2 FG% in the regular season to 45.0 combined points on 39.8 FG% in the Finals.
The story seemed clear: as Tatum and Brown were forced to take on more team offense creation responsibilities, their own ability to score at volume and efficiency was negatively impacted.
Enter Malcolm Brogdon, a veteran point guard that has demonstrated strong floor generalship (7.1 APG during the 2019-20 season) as well as excellent shooting/scoring ability (21.2 PPG, 2.6 3PG, 38.8 3P% in 2020-21) in his career.
The Celtics are utilizing him as a sixth man this season, with last season’s Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart still starting at the point.
Brogdon has only averaged 13.3 PPG (45.0 FG%, 38.1 3P%, 94.7 FT%), 3.7 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.3 3PG and 0.7 SPG in 22.8 MPG. These are his lowest counting stats since his rookie season, and the lowest minutes output of his career. He currently ranks 139th in the NBA in fantasy points per game, after ranking 48th in that category last season.
Still, Brogdon isl having a huge impact on the Celtics and fantasy leagues alike this season, because of what his presence has done to the Celtics’ approach to the game.
Between Smart (34.2 MPG), Brogdon (22.8 MPG) and Derrick White (26.2 MPG), the Celtics now have two lead guards on the floor simultaneously for almost the entirety of the game. Those three guards are averaging a combined 11.6 assists per game, taking on the lion share of the playmaking duties for the Celtics. And, it’s had a remarkable effect on Tatum and Brown.
Tatum and Brown are averaging only 6.3 combined assists on the season, a value that would represent their lowest assist output in three seasons, since they combined for 5.1 APG during the 2019-20 season. But, on the flip side, Tatum and Brown are combining to average would-be massive career-highs of 56.1 PPG and 5.8 3PG on a way-career-high pace of 50.9 FG%.
Granted that we’re only six games in, and hot streaks exist, but the metrics and eye-test results so far fit the expectation.
Tatum is taking 42.6% of his shots from behind the arc, a career-most pace, but a full 70% of his 3-pointers are assisted (up from 56.5% last season, and 46.5% the season before). A whopping 93.3% of Brown’s 3-pointers this season are assisted, up from 75.9% last season and 79.8% the season before. Having shed the need to create their own offense, Tatum and Brown are able to concentrate on finishing.
And they are finishing better now than ever before.
In standard ESPN leagues, Tatum is putting up 52.3 fantasy points per game (FP/G), good for 9th overall and up from 44.7 FP/G to rank 16th last season. Similarly, Brown is at 40.3 FP/G to rank 29th, up from 37.0 FP/G and the 42nd spot last season.
On top of that, the Celtics look more formidable than they have in years. They are early championship favorites, according to our Basketball Power Index, with a BPI score of 5.4 that is number one in the NBA.
So, what can Brogdon do for you?
If he’s on your fantasy team, his current averages are just replacement level thus far. But his presence on the Celtics, and the subsequent way that it’s changed the way the Celtics play, has had a huge impact on the fantasy prospects of his two best teammates and the futures championship value of his team.
Source : ESPN
