Far less noted was that Biden’s approval rating among Black adults stood at a mere 67%. That was down 20 points, from 87% at the beginning of his presidency, which was fairly in line with the percentage of Black voters who backed him in 2020.
Perhaps, it was the fact that Biden’s approval rating with Black adults remains high when compared with other groups that the 20-point decline didn’t get much notice. Regardless, the Gallup poll is hardly alone.
All these polls showed Biden losing a disproportionate amount of support from Black adults (and voters).
Of course, a president losing support with a group doesn’t necessarily translate to changes in electoral preferences. Biden may be down with younger voters, but, as I’ve noted, their midterm preferences should not be drastically different from how they voted in 2020, even considering the current national environment for Democrats.
An examination of the generic congressional ballot indicates, though, that Black voters, at this point, seem far less likely to vote Democratic than you might expect given their voting history.
What current polls indicate is a 15-point decline from that margin among Black voters. For comparison, among Hispanic voters, Democrats are down 5 points from their 2020 House margin.
When ideology aligns with voting patterns
While Democrats are doing worse among Black voters compared with 2020, Republicans aren’t doing better. Things can change as we get closer to November, and Democrats could gain back some of the ground they have lost.
But there’s plenty of room for Democrats to fall from their 2020 baseline, given the trends of the last two presidential elections. Unlike in most other demographic groups, Black voters who identify as conservative have historically been quite Democratic. Hillary Clinton won them by 58 points in 2016, for example.
(In 2004, a good year for Republicans, Democrat John Kerry won conservative Black voters by 48 points.)
There’s just no recent historical analogy for what happened with conservative Black voters in 2020. It really broke the mold.
If Republicans chip away at Democrats’ support with Black conservatives, it still won’t change the fact that Black voters, overall, remain a very Democratic group.
Elections, however, aren’t won and lost by winning groups of voters. Margins are what matter.
If we continue to see movement among Black conservatives like we did in 2020, life would get easier for the GOP. Republicans aren’t going to need as wide victory margins among other groups to win elections.
Source : CNN