What is worth betting in the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Daniel Dopp and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
Every team playing this weekend has at least five losses on the season. Which team do you trust most in their matchup, and why?
Schatz: If you’re asking which team I trust the most to win outright, the answer is the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are third in weighted DVOA, and they are taking on a Pittsburgh team that will take the field without its best player, T.J. Watt. I don’t believe in Mason Rudolph in the long run; it’s not like the Steelers suddenly discovered a good quarterback sitting at third on the depth chart after four poor years in the NFL. But I don’t necessarily trust the Bills against the spread, especially with the cold and wind expected in Buffalo. There’s a good chance that will keep the game low-scoring and close.
Moody: I trust the Rams (+3.0) to cover the spread against the Lions. This is a matchup that Los Angeles could outright win. Over the past three games, the Lions defense has allowed 407.3 total yards per game, the fourth most in the league. It’s not ideal for Detroit entering the playoffs. It also doesn’t help the Lions that Sam LaPorta and Kalif Raymond are dealing with injuries. The Rams’ offense ranks seventh with 359.3 total yards per game. Matthew Stafford is in sync with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, which is suboptimal for the Lions’ secondary. With all of these factors, along with Stafford facing his former team and coach Sean McVay facing his former starting quarterback, I’m backing the Rams.
Dopp: The Dallas Cowboys draw the Green Bay Packers in the wild-card round, and there is a lot to like about Dallas. The Cowboys have outscored teams at home by over 170 points this season and the only two teams to come close to finishing within a touchdown were the Seahawks (Week 12: 41-35) and Lions (Week 17: 21-20*). Now they draw a Packers team that has been cycling through wide receivers as everyone has been banged up in that wide receiving corps. With Dak playing at an MVP level and the Cowboys dominating at home this year, I like the Cowboys -6.5 (-135) in this one.
Fulghum: If the spread is not a consideration, I think that is easily the Buffalo Bills. Their matchup is boosted by the injury to Watt. They’re at home. They’re playing (mostly) consistent football at the right time. I think they prevail in this scenario 8 out of 10 times. If the spread is a factor? I understand why most people (Eric included here) are confident in the Rams +3 (-115). Since Week 11, the Rams have the best record in the league at 7-1. They’re only loss was on the road in OT on a punt return TD against the #1 seed in the AFC, Baltimore. Matthew Stafford and the Rams passing attack are a formidable assignment for a Detroit pass defense that finished the year ranked 31st in the league in yards per attempt allowed. Kyren Williams was second in the league in rushing despite playing only 12 games. The Rams are a popular public dog… but for good reason.
How much do you weigh home-field advantage? And which team in this opening round of the playoffs do you feel has the greatest home-field advantage?
Schatz: Home-field advantage matters, but over the long term, research shows that every team basically has the same home-field advantage. A team with a heavy home-field advantage in one five-year period might have no home-field advantage at all in the next five-year period. One-year blips in home-field advantage — for example, Dallas this year ranks sixth in offensive DVOA at home but 15th on the road — tend to be transitory. Last year, we heard so much about Detroit’s home-field advantage. This year, the Lions rank seventh in offensive DVOA at home and seventh on the road. Note that this is different from some quarterbacks being particularly better indoors. Jared Goff, for example, seems to have a bigger indoor/outdoor difference than the average quarterback, but he has that whether he’s playing in Detroit, Minnesota or Dallas.
Dopp: Reverse spoiler alert, I think Dallas obviously has the greatest home-field advantage with the way they played this year, and even though the Rams are red hot coming into the playoffs, don’t count out this Lions team that is looking for the franchise’s first playoff win since 1991. I know, I know, the Stafford narrative is everywhere, but why not focus on the Goff narrative with how good Detroit’s been at home this year?
Fulghum: Home-field advantage doesn’t matter quite as much as it used to in the NFL. The team I believe will most benefit from playing at home in the Super Wild Card Round is the Kansas City Chiefs. Miami is not quite suited to play in the frigid temperatures expected in Kansas City this weekend. Not only that, they’re very banged up on both sides of the ball. Although the Chiefs have struggled offensively this season, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is a strength. In these type of weather conditions, I think the Chiefs can lean on that defense in conjunction with a tremendous home field advantage and advance to the divisional round.
Which game are you staying away from, and why?
Schatz: Rams at Lions. The Rams’ horrible special teams create an opportunity for more variance in their week-to-week performance. Special teams mistakes tend to be big plays. They might happen, but they might not. My system suggests taking the Rams +3 as underdogs in Detroit, but you don’t want to end up a loser when the special teams unit makes one of its big mistakes. And you don’t want to take Detroit and find out that the Rams’ offense is having another good day and the special teams don’t mess it up. I also have the total in this game projected as less than a half-point different than the listed total (51.5) at most sportsbooks. Better to take a look at the other games this weekend and just enjoy the drama and storylines of this one.
Dopp: Eagles at Buccaneers. With the way the Eagles have played recently, I’m staying away from this one. Unlike the game we expect to be close in Detroit, the Eagles have had some ups and downs as they head into the playoffs. They’ve been as dominant as any team this season, but we haven’t seen that consistency from them. Instead it’s games filled with incredible plays, but also disappointing series that don’t turn into points. Given the Eagles’ recent struggles and Baker Mayfield‘s resurgence with this Bucs team, I’m staying away and focusing on other games.
Fulghum: Packers at Cowboys. Green Bay is playing tremendous football on offense at just the right time. They present a legit challenge, even for Micah Parsons and the Cowboys defense. However, the Dallas home field advantage is very real and the Packers relative youth and inexperience is a bit concerning. Of course, they could be too young to know any better and play completely loose and free since no one is expecting them to win the game. It wouldn’t shock me if the outcome of this game was 7 points in either direction.
What’s your favorite player prop bet this weekend?
Schatz: The Dallas Cowboys rank No. 1 in DVOA against short passes, defined as anything up to 15 air yards. They are 19th against deeper passes. Jordan Love has an above-average DVOA on deep passes and throws them more often than the NFL average (21% compared to 19% of the time). The Packers are going to need to get the ball downfield to match what the Cowboys are going to do to their own secondary, and so I like Jordan Love longest completion OVER 35.5 yards (-115).
Moody: Travis Kelce OVER 57.5 receiving yards. Now that the NFL postseason has begun, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs cannot afford any more slipups. Kelce averaged 8.07 targets per game this season, so he should be heavily relied on in this game. Over the past three games, the Dolphins’ defense has allowed 306.0 passing yards per game, third most in the league. Kelce has averaged 9.2 targets and 86.0 receiving yards per game in the playoffs in his career.
Dopp: Aidan Hutchinson OVER 0.5 sacks. Hutch had 11.5 sacks on the year, including five in his final two games. Toward the middle of his second season, you could see that not only has he been working on developing additional pass rush moves, but his hands have improved in a major way, allowing him to pressure the QB even more in his second year than he did as a promising rookie. Looking at the Rams, Stafford was sacked an average of twice per game, which includes being sacked 10 times in his final four games. That’s why I’m taking Hutch over 0.5 sacks (-105).
Fulghum: Matthew Stafford OVER 274.5 passing yards (-115). Stafford and the Rams offense finished the season on a surgical rampage, tearing through opposing defenses with ruthless efficiency on the ground and in the air. In this particular matchup, I’m certain Sean McVay has recognized the struggles Detroit’s defense has had this season stopping the pass. Nick Mullens lit them up for an average of 403.5 passing yards per game in Weeks 16 and 18! This game is indoors, with a massive total. All systems go for Matthew Stafford in his return to Ford Field.
Is there anything else you’re playing this weekend?
Schatz: I’ll take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers money line +135 against the Eagles on Monday night. The Eagles have dropped all the way to 21st in weighted DVOA, which gives more strength to recent games, and the Buccaneers have risen to 15th. The Bucs are a better passing team than a running team, and the Eagles’ pass defense now ranks a dismal 29th on the season. I don’t know for sure whether the numbers are right and the Bucs are now a better team than the Eagles, but I think this game is about a 50-50 proposition when you consider that the Bucs have home-field advantage, and that makes this money line a good bet.
Moody: James Cook OVER 15.5 rushing attempts. In the seven games since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator for the Bills, he has averaged 16.7 rushing attempts per game. With low temperatures, wind and snow, Buffalo will likely to rely on its running game against a Steelers defense that hasn’t been great at containing opposing team’s running backs. Cook is in a great position to shine here.
Moody: Dak Prescott OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns. This season, he has averaged 34.7 pass attempts and 2.1 passing touchdowns per game, and the Cowboys have scored most of their touchdowns via the passing game. Also, Dallas has played much better at home than on the road. Prescott has averaged 2.7 passing touchdowns per game played at home. Since the Cowboys are touchdown favorites and the line is set at 50.5, bettors should also consider over 2.5 passing touchdowns at plus odds (+180).
Dopp: Since Moody is a former offensive lineman, I’m going to tush push my way behind his Prescott bet and double down! This is one of my other favorite props this week with how much Prescott has been slinging it all season. Since Week 8, Dak’s been on fire, so let’s take a look at how he has been doing.
Week 8: 4 TDs
Week 9: 3 TDs
Week 10: 4 TDs
Week 11: 2 TDs
Week 12: 4 TDs
Week 13: 3 TDs
Week 14: 2 TDs
Week 15: 0 TDs
Week 16: 2 TDs
Week 17: 2 TDs
Week 18: 4 TDs
So, Dak has at least 2 passing TDs in 10 of his past 11 games. Not only am I trailing my teammate on OVER 1.5 passing TDs, but I’m also in on going OVER 2.5 passing TDs at the plus odds mentioned above. Great call, Moody!
Moody: David Njoku OVER 54.5 receiving yards. He has surpassed this line in six of his past eight games. In this matchup, Njoku should see ample targets because of his excellent rapport with Joe Flacco. In terms of receiving yards allowed per game, the Texans’ defense gives up the fifth most to tight ends. Also, Houston’s defense has given up the second-most targets and most receptions per game to tight ends.
Source : ESPN
