MADRID — Pedro Sánchez and his Socialist party won Spain’s national elections in April. If only it were that easy. Nothing now is straightforward in Spanish politics, where winning is relative in a polarized and fragmented landscape.
The Socialists secured the most seats in Parliament, but fell short of a majority. So this week, Mr. Sánchez must finally turn in earnest to the challenge of assembling a governing coalition. If he fails, Spaniards will face the prospect of another election — the fourth since late 2015.
His task will not be easy. The coalition negotiations have already led to bitter and often personal feuding, and Mr. Sánchez must rely on smaller parties.
Mr. Sánchez’s surprisingly strong result in April was seen as a victory for Socialism in Europe. It also came as a relief to backers of the European Union, which he and his party support, at a time when the bloc is embattled by challenges from nationalists and populists, especially in Italy and Eastern Europe.
The political uncertainty in Spain will be watched closely by European partners, particularly President Emmanuel Macron of France. He has been hoping that Mr. Sánchez could prove a strong ally in his project to fortify the European Union as it prepares for Britain’s departure.
In Britain, the governing Conservative party is set to elect a new leader on Tuesday, who will replace Theresa May as prime minister and will be responsible for completing the negotiations to exit the European Union. In Italy, the two main governing parties, the far-right League party and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, have been feuding and struggling to hold their government together.
“I don’t see that our Spanish politicians have learned much about the art of negotiations,” said Cristina Aries, a professor of politics at the University of Santiago de Compostela. “Perhaps it should be seen as a sign of our times, when almost no country in Europe has a government with a strong leadership.”
On Monday, Mr. Sánchez sought to highlight the stakes for his country, opening a speech before lawmakers by calling for a constitutional reform to ease the formation of a government and avoid the risk of plunging Spain into another prolonged political deadlock.
In 2016, Spain spent 10 months in political limbo because of inconclusive elections and haggling over who should govern. “Citizens should never again suffer the threat of an election repeat,” Mr. Sánchez said in Parliament.
Mr. Sánchez’s chances of avoiding another election received a boost on Friday from Pablo Iglesias, the leader of the left-wing Unidas Podemos party. Mr. Sánchez and Mr. Iglesias had spent weeks arguing over whether Mr. Iglesias should become a minister in the next government.
Eventually, Mr. Iglesias backed down, on the condition that other politicians aligned with him would be incorporated by Mr. Sánchez in his next Socialist-led cabinet.
Even so, Mr. Sánchez needs to resolve the details of his government-sharing agreement with Unidas Podemos, as well as gain support from some other unwieldy smaller parties, notably the Basque and Catalan nationalists.
Unidas Podemos now only has 42 seats in Parliament, which means that it cannot guarantee on its own an absolute majority for Mr. Sánchez.
Mr. Sánchez will have two opportunities to get voted into office this week. On Tuesday, he must win an absolute majority. If he fails, he must then win at least a simple majority — more yes votes than no votes, without counting abstentions — in a second round of voting scheduled for Thursday.
And should Mr. Sánchez get rejected altogether this week, he could hold another vote in Parliament in September, after the summer recess, before being forced to call another national election.
Mr. Sánchez has made a remarkable comeback to the forefront of politics, after getting ousted from his own party leadership in an internal revolt in 2016, in the midst of the prolonged period of political deadlock.
But he has been forced to negotiate with some other party leaders whose own positions have weakened since 2016, particularly Mr. Iglesias, who lost a significant number of voters in the last election and has been struggling to maintain his own leadership as some high-profile politicians split away from his party.
But perhaps the biggest challenge for Mr. Sánchez has been his personal fallout with Albert Rivera, the leader of Ciudadanos, now Spain’s third-largest party.
The two party leaders came close to forming a coalition government in 2016. But more recently, Mr. Rivera has shifted his party further to the right and vowed to vote against Mr. Sánchez and his Socialist party.
Mr. Rivera accuses the Socialists of favoring secessionist politicians who want to break up Spain, particularly in the northeastern region of Catalonia that remains the epicenter of Spain’s territorial crisis. On Monday, Mr. Rivera told Parliament that Mr. Sánchez was ready to lead “a gang to wipe out Spain.”
Mr. Sánchez, in response, has accused Mr. Rivera of forcing him into an unwanted alternative alliance with the Catalan politicians, who have continued to cast a long shadow over the government negotiations in Madrid.
Mr. Sánchez is hoping to finish forming his government before Spain’s Supreme Court issues its verdict in the landmark trial of 12 of the region’s former separatist leaders, who were charged with rebellion and other crimes, as part of a botched attempt to declare unilateral independence in late 2017.
His tactic has been to “hold up a mirror to the face of Ciudadanos to show them their own contradictions, if what they want is to maintain the stability of Spain,” said Pablo Simón, a professor of politics at the Carlos III University in Madrid.
Mr. Rivera’s own party leadership has recently been shaken, with some politicians leaving Ciudadanos to protest his swing to the right.
Mr. Rivera has allowed a new far-right party, Vox, which won 10 percent of votes in April, to become a coalition partner in some of Spain’s regional and municipal administrations, including in Madrid, the Spanish capital.
Such moves have drawn criticism even from abroad, especially in France. Last month, the Élysée Palace pointedly denied a claim made by Mr. Rivera that he had been personally congratulated by Mr. Macron on his election progress.
Instead, Amélie de Montchalin, France’s secretary of state for European affairs, warned Ciudadanos on Twitter that “when you form part of a pro-European group, you don’t work with the far right.”
Source : Nytimes
