And although you may never get to see Antarctica for yourself, these scientists want you to know that what happens in this remote region has a significant impact in your own backyard.
The Southern Ocean that surrounds the continent is vital to the health of all the rest. It soaks up more heat and carbon than any other ocean, and in doing so, it helps slow the speed with which the atmosphere is warming. The region also does the world a real service by returning nutrient-rich deep water to the surface, and it exports these nutrients to lower latitudes that rely on them to support the life in our seas.
Why pollution hurts this region
The continent is particularly sensitive to the effects of pollution.
The dire scenario
That’s on top of the record rate at which the continent is already losing sea ice. Antarctica is believed to have lost an average of 71 billion to 53 billion metric tons of ice per year between 1992 and 2011, according to a new study.
If the sea ice melts, that would mean a rise in sea levels around the globe. In the worst case, by 2070, the sea would probably rise about half a meter from where it was in 2000. US coasts would probably see even higher sea rise, which would wreak havoc and be irreversible. It would cause an estimated $1 trillion in damage in the United States alone, researchers believe.
The water in the Southern Ocean could become corrosive to any animal with a shell. The warmer ocean would create more icebergs, which would have to be carefully watched to protect fishing, shipping and tourism. Fishing would get harder, since fish stocks would decline. There would be severe declines of penguins and other die-offs of seabirds and seals.
The optimistic scenario
By 2070 — if the world worked together and made pollution a priority, limiting greenhouse gases — the second scenario predicts that there is a chance Antarctica could look much like it does now. The ice sheets would still be thinning, but that could slow, as would increases in ocean acidity.
Some of the more sensitive species would still see population declines, but others would adapt. The continuing decline of sea ice would still be forcing seal and seabird populations to change the way they forage for food, and these animals may still have some challenges with breeding, as we see today, but sea ice stabilization could reduce the frequency with which extreme events happen and hurt these species.
Technology developed to redesign Antarctica’s bases in the wake of these changes could be used to improve building and waste management in other parts of the world.
Worldwide impacts
The interdisciplinary team of researchers behind the theoretical glimpse into two possible futures hopes it will motivate policy-makers to make melting sea ice a priority.
“We need people to realize this is not something that only impacts a remote region. Fisheries that provide a lot of jobs and food for the masses will be impacted. Coastal regions will feel this. It has far-reaching consequences across the planet.”
DeConto is still optimistic about the future.
“I am by nature optimistic, but it may take some increasing hardships around the coastal regions before people put it together that, say, the nuisance flooding we see in Boston and in Miami and in other regions that is getting a little bit worse is an indication that something is going on really far away that is impacting us,” he said.
“Now, we have firm attribution about what, at least in large part, is causing these changes. Hopefully, when people see that, they may pay attention, and we want that to happen sooner rather than later, before it is too late.”
Source : Nbcnewyork