EAGAN, Minn. — The story of the Minnesota Vikings‘ 2023 season has been told largely through the lens of their uncertainty at quarterback. On Wednesday, in fact, coach Kevin O’Connell announced his fifth change since Kirk Cousins ruptured his right Achilles tendon Oct. 29.
And yet there is a remarkably straight line running through their defense as well, one that will merit fair scrutiny of their personnel distribution this offseason. The Vikings’ defensive efficiency rankings, a per-play measure of the extent to which the defense has contributed to scoring margins, have directly reflected the team’s winning percentage:
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Weeks 1-3: No. 27 in NFL (0-3)
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Weeks 4-14: No. 1 in NFL (7-3)
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Weeks 15-17 No. 32 in NFL (0-3)
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores installed a unique scheme that elevated the group for much of the season, but injuries and personnel shortcomings have limited the menu of adjustments during this recent ebb. Barring an influx of new talent and significant development among incumbents, Flores could face a similar challenge in 2024.
“Credit to Flo and his staff for the evolution of the defense, week in and week out,” O’Connell said, “[and] where they took it to try to give our players a great chance to have success. At the same time, as they put more on tape and more on tape, maybe teams are honing in on certain ways that they want to play, and now it’s our time to either adjust or take a look at it with a microscope and say, ‘We need to be better in our execution there, and tighten up a little bit there, and understand formations and tells and tendencies.'”
Flores said last week his goal has been to “try to get back” to the way the defense played in the middle of the season. He did not blame injuries or personnel issues but said the top priority at this point is “really, really honing in on being precise and detailed on those fundamentals.”
“I know what we’re capable of,” he added. “We’ve shown that. But every week’s different in the National Football League.”
Flores’ scheme combined his passion for front-end pressure with a college-based zone coverage, a combination that had never been used with such frequency at the pro level. The Vikings lead the NFL with a blitz rate of 47.9%, the 10th-highest for any team through 17 weeks since ESPN Stats & Information began tracking it in 2006, and rank second in frequency of zone coverage (69.4%).
The approach was especially fitting for a team that entered the season with one proven pass rusher, linebacker Danielle Hunter, and an overhauled group of cornerbacks who were untested in the man coverages that typically support high-blitz schemes. Assistant head coach Mike Pettine, the defensive coordinator of the 2006 New York Jets team that had the highest blitz rate (52.4%) in ESPN’s recorded range, said it was natural to seek supplemental pass rush and try to limit the time that the secondary was asked to be in coverage.
“Part of it [with the Jets] was that we felt the need to manufacture the rush a little bit just based on the personnel,” Pettine said, “and I think that’s part of the case here. We certainly have Danielle and some guys we feel good about it, but at the same time it’s no different than a basketball player. Can this guy create his own shot? Can he win 1-on-1 off the dribble, or is this a guy we need to run plays for, picks and all that?
“Whether you’re running games with the pass rush, or whether it’s pressures to free a guy up, that’s the mentality behind it.”
The Vikings are finishing the season without their most experienced cornerback, Byron Murphy Jr, who hasn’t played since suffering a knee injury in Week 15 at Cincinnati. They’ve now lost two of their top three outside linebackers, Marcus Davenport and D.J. Wonnum, to season-ending injuries as well.
Looking ahead, Hunter is headed to the free agent market after the Vikings agreed last summer not to use the franchise tag on him, and after a 15.5 sack season, he will receive heavy interest. Wonnum and inside linebacker Jordan Hicks are also on expiring contracts. Safety Harrison Smith would likely need to restructure his contract to play a 13th season at age 35 in 2024.
Players come and go every season in the NFL, but the Vikings will have an especially sharp friction point this offseason. Their “competitive rebuild,” the term coined by general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to describe a vision of playing what he called “meaningful games in December” while also overhauling the roster, has not produced many candidates to ascend on defense in 2024.
The Vikings drafted five defensive players in the first 165 picks of the 2022 draft, including two — safety Lewis Cine and cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. — in the top 42. One of those five players, fourth-round cornerback Akayleb Evans, has seen any significant playing time in two seasons.
The 2023 offseason proved a bit more fruitful, as third-round cornerback Mekhi Blackmon has started three games and played 40% of the team’s defensive snaps. Undrafted inside linebacker Ivan Pace Jr., meanwhile, has started 11 games and played 63% of snaps.
But the Vikings’ 2024 personnel outlook would look much better if, say, Cine and Booth projected as starters instead of the part-time special teams roles they have played in 2023.
That makes Flores the ace of the Vikings’ future defensive plans, assuming he doesn’t depart for a head coaching job. He said Thursday that the 2023 season has been “one of the most rewarding, most fun seasons that I’ve been a part of,” because of a “great group of guys” as well as his own personal improvement.
“I’ve evolved and done some things that are out of my comfort zone,” he said. “I’m always trying to improve and evolve, and so that’s been good.”
Source : ESPN
