It would take a huge about-face for Mrs. May to offer a second referendum, something she has consistently rejected (though she has changed course before, by calling a general election last year after ruling out that option). But Mr. Dunleavy, the political science professor, believes that if she is replaced her successor could turn to a second referendum as a way out of an impossible situation.
Another pathway could lead through the election of a Labour government, according to Mr. Grant, of the Center for European Reform. While noting that a referendum is not current party policy, “there is movement within the party toward that option,” he said.
The other option, Mr. Grant said, is that a deadlocked Parliament asks the government to hold a plebiscite since, with a no-deal cliff edge looming, it could seem like “a welcome alternative to political and economic chaos.”
Whatever the scenario, a second referendum would need the support of a majority of lawmakers, as it is Parliament who would have to authorize it. The People’s Vote campaign is vague about its parliamentary support, but it is thought to be well into three figures — though far short of a majority of the 650 seats.
But if Mrs. May cannot get her deal through, and the European Union offers no alternative plan (something it says it cannot), the numbers in Parliament could change as the implications of a no-deal Brexit loom.
One significant moment was the resignation last week of the rail minister, Jo Johnson, brother of the pro-Brexit campaigner and former foreign secretary, Boris Johnson. Unlike his brother, Jo Johnson campaigned for Britain to remain in the 2016 referendum, but accepted the result and joined a government committed to delivering an exit.
Now Jo Johnson is in favor of a People’s Vote, “a reminder that support for a referendum is deeper than it appears,” wrote Mujtaba Rahman, managing director and practice head, Europe, for the Eurasia Group.
Source : Nytimes
